2021 NL Cy Young Odds See deGrom Favored Over Bauer

New York Mets pitch Jacob deGrom in the middle of thorwing a

FILE – In this Sept. 6, 2020, file photo, New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom winds up during the second inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies in New York. Mets ace deGrom is going for his third consecutive NL Cy Young Award, and Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts could become the second player to win the MVP award in each league. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens, File)

  • Jacob deGrom is a slight favorite to win the 2021 National League Cy Young Award over Trevor Bauer
  • The Mets ace won the award in 2018 & 2019, while the new Dodger won it last year
  • See the complete odds below and analysis for the best pick to win this season

New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom is a slight favorite to win the 2021 National League Cy Young Award over Trevor Bauer. Recently acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bauer won the award last season as a member of the Cincinnati Reds. DeGrom earned the honor in 2018 and 2019.

Opening Day is slated for Thursday, April 1, with Bauer’s Dodgers opening defense of the franchise’s first World Series title since 1988 at Coors Field against the Rockies.

DeGrom’s Mets — who have had quite the offseason — are slated to open against the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals on the same day in our nation’s capital. There’s plenty of familiar names this year compared to last year.

2021 NL Cy Young Odds

Player 2021 NL Cy Young Odds
Jacob deGrom (Mets) +500
Trevor Bauer (Dodgers) +700
Max Scherzer (Nationals) +850
Walker Buehler (Dodgers) +1000
Yu Darvish (Padres) +1000
Aaron Nola (Phillies) +1200
Blake Snell (Padres) +1200
Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) +1300
Luis Castillo (Reds) +1500
Max Fried (Braves) +1700
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) +2000
Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) +2000
Charlie Morton (Braves) +2200
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) +2200
Dinelson Lamet (Padres) +2500
Patrick Corbin (Nationals) +2800
German Marquez (Rockies) +3000
Michael Soroka (Braves) +3000
Sonny Gray (Reds) +3300
Sixto Sanchez (Marlins) +3300
Zack Wheeler (Phillies) +3300
Corbin Burnes (Brewers) +4000
Carlos Carrasco (Mets) +4000
Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks) +5000
Kevin Gausman (Giants) +5000
Josh Hader (Brewers) +5000
Pablo Lopez (Marlins) +5000
Joe Musgrove (Padres) +5000
Marcus Stroman (Mets) +5000
Noah Syndergaard (Mets) +5000
Jon Gray (Rockies) +6000
Chris Paddack (Padres) +6000
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs) +6000
David Price (Dodgers) +6000

Odds taken Feb. 12 on DraftKings

King of Queens

The 32-year-old deGrom finished behind Bauer and Darvish in 2020 NL Cy Young Award voting — but it wasn’t due to a down season. Over 12 starts, the Mets ace sported a 2.38 ERA over 68 innings. His 13.9 K/9 rate and 104 total strikeouts were both top marks on the Senior Circuit. But Bauer probably won (and deGrom probably lost) the award in their respective last starts of the regular season.

Bauer struck out 12 Brewers over eight innings of one-run ball. Three days later, deGrom proved relatively mortal in allowing three runs to the Nationals.

But this year, deGrom is back after an up-and-down last few months for the Amazins. The organization added perennial MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and talented Carlos Carrasco in a deal last month with the Indians. Then, shortly after the deal, the franchise that can’t seem to get out of its own way at times fired general manager Jared Porter following an embarrassing sexting scandal.

The savvy deGrom should get past the off-the-field issues with aplomb and will appreciate the Cleveland imports. DeGrom is the rightful favorite.

Coming Home

Bauer was lights out in 2020, leading the NL with a 1.73 ERA, finishing second with 100 strikeouts and helping get the Reds to the postseason to the first time since 2013. But after signing a three-year, $102 million deal with the Dodgers, the 30-year-old who grew up in the Southland and went to college at UCLA will play for his hometown team. And with that, comes heavy expectations — and some unwanted attention.

Of course, Bauer will have a ton of help. Offensively, the reigning champs are stacked with a pair of former regular season MVPs in Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger to go along with 2020 World Series MVP Corey Seager.

Then, there’s the rotation that features Buehler, Kershaw and the return of Price — who opted out of last season due to COVID concerns.

As talented as Bauer is, he comes with baggage. He’s outspoken on social media (see above) and has had numerous run-ins with the media. Plus, he’ll compete with members of his own starting rotation for votes. I’m not sold.

Flat-Out Talented

If you’re looking for a possible sleeper, Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty is an intriguing candidate at +1300. After finishing fourth in 2020 NL Cy Young balloting, the 25-year-old (like Bauer, a Southern California native) didn’t fare quite as well in 2020.  But his inflated 4.91 ERA is misleading. The worst start of his young career came on Sept. 15 against Milwaukee, when he allowed nine earned runs over three innings. But if you take out that one start, his numbers are strikingly close to the 2019 stats. He’s an elite talent.

And let’s not forget, with the Cardinals’ impending acquisition of Nolan Arenado, Flaherty will have added run support and plus-defense at the hot corner every start.

DeGrom is the worthy favorite, but Flaherty could be a breakout performer.

Blair Johnson



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