Lazio vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1

Lazio vs Bayern Munich

Munich’s Robert Lewandowski, left, and Frankfurt’s Martin Hinteregger challenge for the ball during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern Munich in Frankfurt, Germany, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. (Arne Dedert/POOL via AP)

  • Lazio and Bayern Munich matchup in the last 16 of the Champions League on February 23rd
  • Injuries have hit both squads and Bayern are without several key players
  • Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below

The last 16 of the Champions League continues on February 23, 2021. Lazio vs Bayern Munich kicks off on Tuesday with the reigning European champions hoping to improve on recent poor domestic performances. Lazio went unbeaten in the group stage and secured their knockout berth with a Matchday g draw with Club Brugge.

Bayern’s path was much smoother. Winning all but one of their matches, the Bavarian superclub secured their last 16 place with time to spare. Their 18 goals in the group stage was the most of any team in the competition.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Lazio vs Bayern Munich LAZ +1 (-139) | BAY -1 (+117) LAZ +380 | BAY -148 | DRAW +310 Ov 3.5 (+110) | Un 3.5 (-150)

All odds taken Feb 22 at DraftKings

Ideal Timing for Lazio

This match comes at the perfect time for Lazio. They were not anywhere near their best during the group stage. This version of Simone Inzaghi’s team is barely recognizable – they’ve won eight of their last 10, including an impressive performance to beat Sampdoria at the weekend. That victory moved Lazio into Serie A’s top four and made it seven home wins in a row.

Bayern’s situation is a stark contrast. After winning the Club World Cup, they have taken a sole point from two Bundesliga matches. A six-goal draw with Arminia Bielefeld and loss to Eintracht Frankfurt is far from ideal preparation for their return to Champions League action. Their defense has been porous all season long, too. No team in the Bundesliga’s top six has conceded more than Bayern’s 31 this term.

Bayern were the last team anyone wanted to face. Lazio, though, might have got them at the right time. They will not have a better chance to topple the reigning European and German champions.

Absentee Stars

While Lazio could be without Andrea Pereira, who missed the weekend’s match with a fever, Bayern’s selection issues are more severe. They have the squad depth to bring in talented and experienced players, but there’s no question they are drastically weakened at the moment.

Thomas Muller and Benjamin Pavard recently tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss out. Douglas Costa, Corentin Tolisso and Serge Gnabry are out. Niklas Sule could be forced to fill in at right-back, and Eric Choupo-Moting might start again. Hansi Flick still has options aplenty, but Bayern are evidently depleted. Leroy Sane, Robert Lewandowski and Kingsley Coman still make for a fearsome attack, though it will be interesting to see if Flick packs the midfield behind them.

Luiz Felipe and Stefan Radu are out for Lazio. Mateo Musacchio is a more than capable deputy in the back three. Inzaghi has his attacking stars available – Ciro Immobile and Joaquin Correa will be excited by the opportunity to exploit this Bayern defense.

Lazio vs Bayern Munich Champions League Stats

11 Goals 18
12.2 Shots taken per 90 15.8
466.2 Passes per 90 599
14 yellows, 0 reds Cards 9 yellows, 1 red
55% Shots inside the area 49%

Lazio Represent Value

Bayern are still at a talent advantage. They have been almost perfect in the Champions League over the last two seasons, too, winning 16 of their last 17. It’s easy to see why the away side are favored, and quite significantly. Recent form is impossible to ignore here, though. Flick’s team looks vulnerable in a way they haven’t in a long time, and Lazio have the attacking talents at their disposal to take advantage.

Lazio or draw on the double chance is a good bet at +123. There’s a temptation in the goals markets as well. Over 2.5 has hit in 74-percent of Bayern’s matches this season – that figure is still up at 54-percent for Lazio. A parlay of Lazio to avoid defeat and over 2.5 goals represents good value at +295.

Betting over 3.5 straight up will get interest as well, but with over 3.5 hitting in only 31-percent of Lazio’s outings this term, it’s a trickier bet to justify at +110. Those looking for a longer-priced bet could go for Lazio and BTTS (both teams to score) at +600.

Pick: Lazio or draw (+123) 

Sam Cox

NBA MLB Soccer Sports Writer

NBA MLB Soccer

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