Munich’s Robert Lewandowski, left, and Frankfurt’s Martin Hinteregger challenge for the ball during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern Munich in Frankfurt, Germany, Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021. (Arne Dedert/POOL via AP)
- Lazio and Bayern Munich matchup in the last 16 of the Champions League on February 23rd
- Injuries have hit both squads and Bayern are without several key players
- Get the latest odds, betting discussion and a pick below
The last 16 of the Champions League continues on February 23, 2021. Lazio vs Bayern Munich kicks off on Tuesday with the reigning European champions hoping to improve on recent poor domestic performances. Lazio went unbeaten in the group stage and secured their knockout berth with a Matchday g draw with Club Brugge.
Bayern’s path was much smoother. Winning all but one of their matches, the Bavarian superclub secured their last 16 place with time to spare. Their 18 goals in the group stage was the most of any team in the competition.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Odds
|Lazio vs Bayern Munich||LAZ +1 (-139) | BAY -1 (+117)||LAZ +380 | BAY -148 | DRAW +310||Ov 3.5 (+110) | Un 3.5 (-150)|
All odds taken Feb 22 at DraftKings
Ideal Timing for Lazio
This match comes at the perfect time for Lazio. They were not anywhere near their best during the group stage. This version of Simone Inzaghi’s team is barely recognizable – they’ve won eight of their last 10, including an impressive performance to beat Sampdoria at the weekend. That victory moved Lazio into Serie A’s top four and made it seven home wins in a row.
Bayern’s situation is a stark contrast. After winning the Club World Cup, they have taken a sole point from two Bundesliga matches. A six-goal draw with Arminia Bielefeld and loss to Eintracht Frankfurt is far from ideal preparation for their return to Champions League action. Their defense has been porous all season long, too. No team in the Bundesliga’s top six has conceded more than Bayern’s 31 this term.
— S.S.Lazio (@OfficialSSLazio) February 21, 2021
Bayern were the last team anyone wanted to face. Lazio, though, might have got them at the right time. They will not have a better chance to topple the reigning European and German champions.
While Lazio could be without Andrea Pereira, who missed the weekend’s match with a fever, Bayern’s selection issues are more severe. They have the squad depth to bring in talented and experienced players, but there’s no question they are drastically weakened at the moment.
Thomas Muller and Benjamin Pavard recently tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss out. Douglas Costa, Corentin Tolisso and Serge Gnabry are out. Niklas Sule could be forced to fill in at right-back, and Eric Choupo-Moting might start again. Hansi Flick still has options aplenty, but Bayern are evidently depleted. Leroy Sane, Robert Lewandowski and Kingsley Coman still make for a fearsome attack, though it will be interesting to see if Flick packs the midfield behind them.
1️⃣4️⃣4️⃣ goals in 2️⃣0️⃣3️⃣ games for Lazio 🔥
🏆 European Golden Shoe 2019-20
Happy birthday, Ciro Immobile! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/BEKcyXMuP1
— Goal (@goal) February 20, 2021
Luiz Felipe and Stefan Radu are out for Lazio. Mateo Musacchio is a more than capable deputy in the back three. Inzaghi has his attacking stars available – Ciro Immobile and Joaquin Correa will be excited by the opportunity to exploit this Bayern defense.
Lazio vs Bayern Munich Champions League Stats
|12.2||Shots taken per 90||15.8|
|466.2||Passes per 90||599|
|14 yellows, 0 reds||Cards||9 yellows, 1 red|
|55%||Shots inside the area||49%|
Lazio Represent Value
Bayern are still at a talent advantage. They have been almost perfect in the Champions League over the last two seasons, too, winning 16 of their last 17. It’s easy to see why the away side are favored, and quite significantly. Recent form is impossible to ignore here, though. Flick’s team looks vulnerable in a way they haven’t in a long time, and Lazio have the attacking talents at their disposal to take advantage.
bayern getting absolutely undone in transition again
the move breaks down and then younes just stonks it for the goal but this bayern side has huge problems defending transition
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) February 20, 2021
Lazio or draw on the double chance is a good bet at +123. There’s a temptation in the goals markets as well. Over 2.5 has hit in 74-percent of Bayern’s matches this season – that figure is still up at 54-percent for Lazio. A parlay of Lazio to avoid defeat and over 2.5 goals represents good value at +295.
Betting over 3.5 straight up will get interest as well, but with over 3.5 hitting in only 31-percent of Lazio’s outings this term, it’s a trickier bet to justify at +110. Those looking for a longer-priced bet could go for Lazio and BTTS (both teams to score) at +600.
Pick: Lazio or draw (+123)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.