Betting

Money Back Offer (13:50 Newbury) – Paddy Power | Matched Betting Blog


There’s a big day of racing at Newbury on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power money back offer! Simply place a bet of up to £10.00 on the 13:50 at Newbury and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.10 and here’s how…

Key terms

  • We must place our bet between 10:00 on Saturday 20th February 2021 and 13:50 (race-off) on Sunday 21st February 2021.
  • Offer applies to the win market and the win part of each way bets only.
  • If less than 7 runners take part, this offer will revert to money back if 2nd.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.

Qualifying bet

If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my qualifying bets guide.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.

At the time of writing, the back and lay odds aren’t quite tight enough. Southfield Harvest is favourite to win the race at back odds of 5.00 (4/1). I’ll use lay odds of 5.40 to illustrate how this offer works and I’ll update the bottom of this post after the race with a genuine selection.

We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.29…

Place £10.00 on Southfield Harvest @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £40.00

Lay £9.29 on Southfield Harvest @ 5.40 = Potential liability of £40.87

Outcomes

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Paddy Power Exchange Free Bet Profit/Loss
Southfield Harvest wins + £40.00 – £40.87 £0.87 loss
Southfield Harvest finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th – £10.00 + £9.10 + £8.00 £7.10 profit
Southfield Harvest finishes outside top 4 – £10.00 + £9.10 £0.90 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.10 if Southfield Harvest finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose a maximum of £7.10 on any other outcome. Risking £0.90 to make a profit of £7.10 gives us effective odds of 8.89, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on any horse racing market for 7 days.

If you’re unsure how to convert your £10.00 free bet into £8.00 cash (80%), please see my free bets guide for a walkthrough of how it should be done.



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