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Serie A Matchday 24 Odds & Picks: Roma vs AC Milan, Udinese vs Fiorentina & More


Serie A Matchday 24

Roma’s Carles Perez, right, celebrates with Lorenzo Pellegrini after scoring their second goal during the Europa League round of 32 second leg soccer match between Roma and Braga, at Rome’s Olympic Stadium, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

  • Serie A Matchday 24 will be played over Saturday, February 27 to Sunday, February 28, 2021
  • AS Roma hasn’t beaten a team ranked in the top eight all season
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 24 here

Serie A Matchday 24 kicks off Saturday morning with Spezia hosting Parma. The weekend continues with two more matches on Saturday and six on Sunday, highlighted by a top-four match with Roma vs AC Milan on Sunday afternoon.

Friday’s Torino vs Sassuolo match has now been postponed until March 17, due to an outbreak of the coronavirus within Torino.

Some lineup rotations could always be in the cards with teams like Lazio, Atalanta, AC Milan and Roma all playing in Europe this week, so be sure to check the starting XIs.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 24 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 24 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Torino vs Sassuolo
Spezia vs Parma +137 +220 +220
Bologna vs Lazio +250 +260 +105
Verona vs Juventus +500 +320 -188
Sampdoria vs Atalanta +400 +300 -163
Crotone vs Cagliari +230 +260 +110
Inter Milan vs Genoa -550 +600 +1400
Udinese vs Fiorentina +137 +225 +210
Napoli vs Benevento -250 +375 +650
Roma vs AC Milan +137 +240 +200

All odds taken Feb 25 at Bet365

Spezia vs Parma Prediction

With Friday’s postponement, Spezia vs Parma will now kick-off Serie A Matchday 24 on Saturday morning at 9:00 am EST.

The newly-promoted Spezia have the upper hand into this match in 16th-place on 24 points, while Parma sits 19th with 14 points.  Spezia has a nine-point gap between themselves and the relegation zone, while Roberto D’Aversa’s Parma continues to fall deeper into relegation threat.

After one of the biggest wins in their club’s history in defeating AC Milan 2-0 two rounds ago, Spezia came crashing back to Earth with a 3-0 loss at Fiorentina last week.

Spezia are a neutral fan’s delight. And a favorite of OVER bettors. At 17-6, they are tied with Roma and Crotone for the most matches to go OVER 2.5 total goals. Their match averages for goals are 3.1.

Parma has been truly dreadful. They’ve failed to win a match now over the last 15 matches in all competitions and they often even struggle to come away with draws. Over those 15 matches, they’re a woeful 0-5-10 (WDL). But in their past 12, they’re even worse at 0-2-10.

Last week they were at least able to stop the bleeding a bit, salvaging a 2-2 draw with Udinese, which snapped a run of five straight losses. After losing 2-1 to Verona the week prior, Parma has scored in back-to-back matches after being scoreless in three.

There’s only ever been three all-time meetings between these teams. Once, earlier this season ended 2-2 in Parma. While during the 2017/18 season the teams drew 0-0 and Parma won 2-0.

Parma’s matches are not quite as high-scoring as Spezia’s mostly due to the fact that they rarely contribute to the scoresheet themselves. Even with only 17 goals of their own, the 45 they’ve conceded have seen their matches average 2.7 goals per game, plus an OVER 2.5 total goals record of 14-9.

Spezia are always capable of scoring but have kept only kept five clean sheets on the season, and Parma is now showing some signs of contributing offensively. Therefore, I’ll back the OVER 2.5 total in this one. Both teams scoring at -134 odds could also be a play too.

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

Udinese vs Fiorentina Prediction

On Sunday, two teams with identical records will meet when 13th (Udinese) hosts 14th (Fiorentina) at 9:00 am EST. Both teams currently own records of 6-7-10 (WDL) entering Serie A Matchday 24. Each has also scored 25 goals on the season, while Udinese has conceded 33 goals and Fiorentina 35.

Udinese is winless in two after last week’s 2-2 draw with Parma and a 3-0 loss to Roma the round prior. However, that was the loan defeat in the past six matches as they are 2-3-1 (WDL). Their matches are generally tight. Take out the Roma loss and they’ve scored six while allowing just three. Which makes it easy to see why the UNDER 2.5 total bet has paid off in 5/6.

In fact, both Udinese and Fiorentina, have been involved in some of the lowest scoring matches in Serie A this season. Both are 12-11 to UNDER 2.5 totals, with only Cagliari at 14-9 cashing more UNDER tickets.

Fiorentina were 3-0 winners last week, but their play is terribly inconsistent. For me, they are one of the harder teams to peg. Since the turn of the calendar, the Viola are 3-2-4 and their totals are 5-4 to the OVER, despite being a team that typically plays to the UNDER.

 

In Serie A, these teams played back in October, which resulted in a 3-2 home win for Fiorentina. But that high-scoring affair has been an outlier in recent meetings. They also played in November in the Coppa Italia, which ended 1-0 for Fiorentina in extra-time. The past five league meetings though in recent seasons have all seen two goals or fewer with scorelines reading: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0.

For me, there’s little between these sides and a draw (+225) looks likely. But on the chance someone comes out with a narrow win, I’ll bet on fewer than three goals being scored in the match.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-150)

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction

Serie A Matchday 24 concludes on Sunday afternoon with Roma hosting AC Milan at 2:45 pm EST. With both teams ranked inside the top four, this is easily the match of the weekend.

Neither team will be happy with their performance last weekend. Roma went on the road to newly-promoted Benevento and came away with a disappointing 0-0 draw. It’s not all bad for Roma, as they are 3-1-1 (WDL) in the past five in Serie A. However, if you look back over the course of the season, Roma has failed to deliver against some of the top sides. Against any team currently ranked inside the top eight, Roma is still winless at 0-4-4.

Obviously that doesn’t bode well against the title-contending AC Milan who will be looking to rebound after a poor showing in the Milan Derby, losing 3-0 to Inter. This, after also losing 2-0 to Spezia the round prior and now finding themselves four points adrift of Inter at the summit,

On Thursday Roma played Braga in the Europa League Round of 32 and were 3-1 winners, advancing 5-1 on aggregate. It came at a cost though, with forward Edin Dzeko sustaining a thigh injury which will rule him out for this weekend and beyond.

While AC Milan played Red Star Belgrade, drawing 1-1, but also advancing on aggregate 3-3, based off of away goals.

We have another matchup this weekend which saw the teams play out a 3-3 draw earlier this year. That was the case in Milan on October 26 when these teams last played. Prior to that, last season both teams won at home, Roma 2-1 and Milan 2-0. In 2018/19 Milan won 2-1 at home the teams drew 1-1 in Rome. That means home teams are recently undefeated in the last five meetings at 3-2-0 (WDL).

Of any match this weekend, goals look likely in this one and both teams scoring and OVER 2.5 at -120 looks like a solid bet. But I also don’t trust Roma against top opponents. That makes either Milan at +200 to win outright a great longshot bet, the Milan double chance (win or draw) at -188 a safe bet, or the Milan draw no bet (win or draw) a good value bet.

Pick: AC Milan – Draw No Bet (+110)





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