The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead –

The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone.

The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead .

The CWU was a strong supporter of Jeremy Corbyn and was opposed to Starmer in last year’s leadership contest.

In another finding the poll had 57%, backing the re-nationalising Royal Mail, with 29% wanting to keep it in private hands, as it has been since 2014.

We know that the overall sample was of 502 but what I have not seen yet is how many of those contacted actually had a view.

Survation has a mixed record with its constituency polling and in by-elections things can be very dynamic.

Inevitably this led to a lot of activity on the betting exchanges and this is from Smarkets.

At 25% I think LAB is now value.

Mike Smithson

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