There are 3 things to consider when creating profitable sports betting strategies
- Bankroll management
- Value betting
- Statistics and back testing
The idea behind bankroll management is that once you’ve made the decision to invest in sports betting and deposit funds, you never need to do so again.
There are two ways you can manage a bankroll through sports betting:
The unit approach;
The bankroll percentage approach.
The unit approach uses a specific amount for every bet, typically between 1–2% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll was ₦10,000, your units would be between ₦1,000–2,000.
The bankroll percentage approach uses different amounts for each bet depending on how confident you are in the play. As confidence increases, consider using a larger percentage of your bankroll.
Saying this, remain disciplined. Even if you seem certain, never use more than 5% of your bankroll per bet – stick to around 2% per regular wager.
After employing a bankroll management strategy, you must start making value bets. This involves understanding how betting odds relate to a team’s chance of winning.
It doesn’t matter if the bet wins or loses. If the odds are way higher than they should be, there is great value in that bet.
As you make more value bets and your bankroll grows, you can then start to increase the size of each bet.
The increases will depend on your method of bankroll management.
With the unit approach, the specific amount will increase in line with the increase in bankroll.
With the bankroll percentage approach, management remains the same.
Statistics and Back testing
All sports betting strategies should be based on statistics – they help you make more accurate betting decisions. Collect the data and analyse it for patterns.
Once you have developed the strategy, you need to test it against past matches. If it shows signs that it can beat results from previous seasons, there’s a decent chance that it will work going forward.
Just bear in mind that bookmakers also have access to the same data you have so may have updated their lines, rendering your new strategy useless.