News of Robert Lewandowski being ruled out for a month on Tuesday left many feeling the pendulum might have swung in RB Leipzig’s favour in the Bundesliga title race.
Enjoying another phenomenal season, the Poland striker has been irresistible for reigning champions Bayern and had come to within touching distance of history.
With 35 league goals in just 25 matches, Lewandowski was just five strikes from equalling Gerd Muller’s all-time single-season record – no one has matched that haul since the Bayern and West Germany great achieved it in 1971-72.
Although already seemingly certain to be regarded as a Bundesliga icon long after he hangs up his boots, eclipsing such a feat while well into his thirties would have surely elevated his legend to a whole new level in German football history.
Who knows, he may yet reach it this term. Assuming he is out for exactly four weeks, the time period Bayern themselves specified, netting another six in Bayern’s final three league games is by no means beyond Lewandowski given the rate he had been scoring at.
But without suffering his knee injury against Andorra, he would have had eight league matches to reach that figure, while his absence will also surely impact on the collective for Bayern.
Hansi Flick’s men are top but only have a four-point cushion ahead of RB Leipzig, whom they will hosted by on Saturday in a game that could have decisive ramifications on the title race.
But Leipzig cannot fall into the trap of taking the absence of Lewandowski – whose xG overperformance of 8.8 for non-penalty goals (29 scored, 20.2 xG) is unmatched across Europe’s top five leagues – for granted.
“Basically, Bayern still has a lot of good players even if Robert Lewandowski will be missing the game,” Leipzig sporting director Markus Krosche told Stats Perform News. “They can replace him.
“Of course, he is a very important player for them after having scored 35 goals, but the squad is good enough to replace him. That’s still not our focus.
“We have to focus on ourselves and what happens on the pitch because that’s what counts for us. If we push ourselves to the limit, then we have a great possibility to beat them. It doesn’t matter if they play with or without Lewandowski.”
Victory for Bayern in Leipzig will see them take a huge step towards a ninth successive Bundesliga title and the omens aren’t great for Julian Nagelsmann’s side, having won just once in 11 competitive meetings with Bayern.
But Die Roten Bullen head into the weekend unbeaten in eight league games, a run that’s seen them amass 22 from a possible 24 points and subsequently claw themselves back to within just a few points of Bayern.
“I am pretty proud,” Krosche replied when asked how if felt to be Bayern’s main rival in 2020-21. “But not only because we are second in the league and their closest rival, but also the way we have been playing in the last few months makes me proud.
“The boys did a great job and have developed well. The way we play is one of the best styles in the Bundesliga, and it is because of our playing style that we could achieve these results. I am proud about the development of the boys.
“We need to keep doing the same things just like in the last few weeks and months. We need to show this football on the pitch. Of course, we need to push ourselves to the limit against Bayern, but we have a lot of self-confidence.
“Our playing style is really good and the boys are convinced of our idea of how to play. So, we’ll try to reach our maximum and then we have a good chance to beat them.”
Stopping Bayern as an attacking threat will be half the battle on Saturday, as Die Roten are averaging three goals every game in the Bundesliga and haven’t fired blanks in any of their previous 61 matches across all competitions, equalling a club record. Coincidentally, Leipzig were the last team to shut them out in February last year.
Despite such a remarkable run, Bayern have not been immune to criticism and the fact they aren’t yet cruising at the top has led to suggestions of the champions being a shadow of their former selves, and losing Lewandowski for a month won’t help.
But Krosche is adamant talk of a Bayern with “weaknesses” has been over the top, instead surmising the chasing pack has improved, with Leipzig boasting the best defence in the league (21 conceded). He said: “Bayern have not played a bad season. People say that they have some weaknesses this season but that’s not the case.
“I think it’s basically the case that we are doing very well. We have a very good balance between offence and defence. That’s what makes us strong this season, and that’s the reason why we are so close to Bayern right now.
“What will be decisive on Saturday is how we can find the balance. This is our plan and we’ll try to do it. I don’t want to reduce it to ‘Bayern are having weaknesses’ but rather say that we are consistent this year and that we have a good opportunity to move even closer when we beat them.”
Beyond the potential impact on the title race, Saturday will be a particularly intriguing contest for Dayot Upamecano, who has already agreed to join Bayern at the end of the season. Krosche hopes he can succeed in Munich but was non-committal on projecting the Frenchman’s future at the Allianz Arena.
“Upa is a player that has everything you need. He is a young guy who already has a lot of international experience,” he continued. “As I said, he’s got everything. He is an important player for us. He has a bright future ahead.
“I don’t know what will happen at Bayern next season. He has a lot of potential for further development, but we will see. We are happy that he is still with us and we hope that we can be successful this season with him. Then we will see how he performs at Bayern.”
One thing’s for certain, Upamecano will be relieved to know the next time he has to come up against Lewandowski will only be a training session.