Jones Knows is backing the deadliest striker in the Premier League to score in a home win on Saturday at 11/2 with Sky Bet.
How did we get on in midweek?
Frustration levels went through the roof. I’m starting to ponder whether to have this carved in my gravestone when I eventually depart this world:
‘Jones Knows: Forever backing the wrong centre-back’
With no Harry Maguire, I made a watertight case for Leicester to cause a big threat from set pieces against Manchester United with Wesley Fofana backed to have a shot at 7/4 and a header on target at 11/1 while also officially including him in my 5/1 double with Eberechi Eze to have two shots for Palace. Of course, Leicester scored from a set piece but it was Caglar Soyuncu thumping a header home. He was 40/1 to score a header. Thankfully (sort of) Roy Hodgson played Eze deeper than in the win at Sheffield United so never looked likely of making the double a winner.
A bit of a mess all round really.
Must make better decisions.
As always, making six correct decisions could land you the pot this weekend as it’s a Super 6 with a twist – but £250,000 is still up for grabs. There are three games to predict on Sunday as well as Saturday. Remember to get your entries in. Well worth a stab.
P+L for the season: -3
1pt on: Danny Ings to score and Southampton to be winning at half-time and full-time vs Fulham (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
The table officially has Saints 13 points better than Fulham but the gap between them is larger than that when you analyse the key metrics and reliability of players in key moments. Ralph Hasenhuttl, who should be the front-runner for the Spurs job, has a fine record at beating teams towards the bottom of the league with his up-tempo style. Eight of Southampton’s 11 Premier League wins this season have come against teams in the bottom eight.
Fulham will be here for the taking.
Scott Parker, who has been linked with the Spurs job, has overseen six defeats in their last seven and their relegation was confirmed in another limp display against Burnley. Parker spoke of some “big decisions” being made over the next month or two and it has to be a worry that motivation within his squad will be low for the remaining games, especially with the amount of loan players in his team.
When Saints win, Danny Ings usually scores. No player to have scored more than 20 goals in the last two seasons – he has scored 34 – in the Premier League has a more deadly conversion rate than the Southampton striker – a whopping 32.08 per cent. To put that into context, Harry Kane is working at a 24 per cent rate. Ings has a point to prove ahead of Gareth Southgate’s Euro 2020 squad announcement and must be backed this weekend to score in a game where Southampton look likely to be winning at half-time and full-time.
Known for their fast starts, I’m thinking they can overrun Fulham early on and score the first goal in a game for the 18th time this season. If they get the first goal, the numbers suggest Fulham, who will be feeling sorry for themselves, won’t be coming back. Parker’s team have lost 16 of 17 Premier League games when conceding first this season, taking just two points from losing positions, the fewest in the league.
Get on that 11/2. Trust in Ralph.